Risk simulator
What if you had sized differently? Your real history, replayed.
The simulator keeps your trades as they happened and changes one thing only: the size of your positions. You see what another rule would have done to your account, before testing it with your money.
Windows · Linux · browser. 14-day free trial, no credit card, no commitment.
Changing your risk after a bad week is betting twice.
Going from 1% to 2% after a good run, doubling after a loss: sizing rules are often decided on a feeling. Their real effect on drawdown and risk of ruin stays invisible until it is too late.
Kara's simulator replays your own trades, in their real order, with the rule you want to test. Win rate and reward-to-risk do not move: only size changes, and you see what it does.
What the tool does
Everything you need, nothing to reopen elsewhere.
Your trades, not imaginary ones
The replay starts from your real history, with its streaks and air pockets, account by account or all accounts combined.
Fixed risk
The same percentage on every trade, to see what regular sizing would have given.
Martingale
A starting risk, a multiplier after a loss, another after a win, and a period after which risk resets.
Drawdown cap
A maximum drawdown per session, day, week or month, beyond which the next trades are skipped.
Before and after
Balance, return, maximum drawdown, average risk and Sharpe, side by side.
Risk of ruin
From 30 trades, a Monte Carlo run gives the probability of ruin and of losing 25% and 50% of the account.
How it works
From connection to first result.
- 01
Pick an account
One account, or all your accounts combined.
- 02
Pick a rule
Fixed risk, martingale or drawdown cap, and its settings.
- 03
Simulate
The replay shows next to your real history.
- 04
Decide
Keep the rule that lowers your drawdown without breaking your return, and set it in the terminal.
What Kara does differently
- The simulator replays your trades, where most calculators draw imaginary trades from a win rate you type in.
- It states its limits: account wiped out with the date, positions with no known stop brought to the average risk, insufficient data shown as is.
- It connects to the rest: the rule you keep is then set in the terminal and the copier, on the same accounts.
- Platforms
- Any account linked to Kara: MetaTrader, cTrader, Rithmic and crypto exchanges.
- Plans
- Included in the Journal (€14.99/month) and Complete (€19.99/month) plans, and in the 14-day trial with no card.
Frequently asked questions
What people ask before signing up.
Does the simulator change my win rate?
No. It keeps each trade's outcome and only changes position size: win rate and reward-to-risk stay those of your history.
How many trades are needed?
The replay works from your first trades; the Monte Carlo risk of ruin needs at least 30 closed trades.
Can I test a martingale?
Yes: starting risk, multiplier after a loss and after a win, and the reset period. The simulator also shows when a rule would have wiped out the account.
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Connect an account. Look at what it shows. Decide after.
An e-mail address to create the account, your broker credentials for the first connection. Nothing else: no card, no sales call.
Windows · Linux · browser — no credit card.