Risk of ruin calculator
Your win rate, your average win in R and your risk per trade are enough to tell what share of accounts like yours would hit the loss threshold. The calculator replays the same strategy 4,000 times.
Risk of ruin16.5%Share of simulated accounts that hit the threshold within 200 trades.
Expectancy per trade+0.13 R
Likely losing streak7 in a row
Median drawdown11.5%
Median result+25%
1 account in 10 ends below −10%, 1 in 10 above +48%.
How it is calculated
The calculator simulates 4,000 accounts that each take the chosen number of trades, won or lost at random according to your win rate. A losing trade removes the set risk, a winner adds that risk times your average win in R. The risk of ruin is the share of accounts that hit the loss threshold before the end.
Risk is counted as a percentage of the starting balance, like prop-firm loss limits. Simulations always start from the same seed: the same settings always give the same result.
Expectancy in R tells whether the strategy wins in the long run; the likely losing streak and the median drawdown tell what you will go through to see it. A positive expectancy does not prevent ruin if the risk per trade is too high for the threshold.
FAQ
Risk of ruin calculator
What is the risk of ruin?
The probability of losing a given share of your capital, for example a prop firm's 10% maximum drawdown, before your statistical edge has had time to play out.
How many losses in a row can a prop-firm account take?
With a 10% maximum loss, a 1% risk per trade takes 10 losses in a row, a 0.5% risk takes 20. Over 200 trades at a 45% win rate, the longest losing streak reaches 8 or more in half of the simulations.
Is a positive expectancy enough?
No. With a 50% win rate and 1.2R, expectancy is positive; yet at 2% risk per trade on a 10% threshold, about 37% of simulated accounts hit the threshold within 200 trades, against under 2% at 0.5% risk.
:+=*-. .+-
:@@@@@%%%%@@%=. =@@@@%+--:::.....:....#@@@* :@#.@-=@. .%#
%@@. ...::::-+===+=--:-+#@ @@@%:.:::==:::::-:--:---::::::...#@@ -%. =....: .
%@*-+ ..:-= %*-.-:::.-==-::+%# -@@*:.:-==---=---:-::.......:.:-:-:::.:..:%@ @=:-= ...*%.
@. ..%@:.+%-@@ ..# % .:....:-%% @@*.::===----::....... .....................:-:.@* @--:-. *.#:
:+- - .= .....:-=@ -@@::--:-::..... ................ ....::-.:@ @=:-:. #.. #
*+.@ % ..:::=%. .@@---:-::.. ........................:::.#@ =@---=:.#..#-.
*++ * . ...::.%% %@+:--=-:... . . .............. ....:::...::::..:@ %%----::.#.#.
*.:. ...::-%- @@:.:-::.... . ... ........:.:.. ... ..::-:..::--:..@@:-::-:@ *+%
*: .....@ @@.:::... . ..... .....::::.......... .... .-=...:--..%%::.-=.=-# @
= . ..:-% @@....... .... . . ............ .... .. ......:....:---:..@:..=-.-#@#
@ .::.@. %@...... . ... .. . ............ ..... .. ...:..:-:--:..%=..=- @#
@#.. ..:-#% @=...... ........ ..... ....... .......... ... .:-:.--:=-:.=#..==. @
.@... .:=:@ =@ . .... . ........ ... .... ........:... ..... ..... ...:=:..-:--::=*..-==.@
@:. .:.:@ @@: #@: -:............ ..... .... ..... . .... ... .. .....:-:.-:..=:.+*..-==.@
@=.. .::.@ ++ %# ..:....... ...... .... ... ......:..... .... ..... .:::-:.:-:.%-..:=--**
@= . ..=.@: @ @ ...::.:....... .. ........ ......... ....... ......:-= --. ::. @....=---@
%= .:-:@ .- @@@@@* @. ::-..:...... .. . ... ..........:.. .....:--:..:. .:. %*....:=--+*
%-.. .:--@ @ @@@@@@@@@@@@ @..:::... .............. ... ...............:::. .. -:..@......-==:@
@ .. ..:.@ - .@@@@@@@@@@@@@@ @..-::... ...:::......... ....... ........ ..:.. .. --. @-.. ...:--=:@
:%@@@@@@@#* @.... ..--@ * @%@@@@@@@@@@# -@ @:-:............. *%@@@@@@- .. ..... ............::.. . ==. @@=-. ....:-=--@
:@@*::--::-====-=%@@ -+.... ..:::@ .%@@@@@@@@@@@@@@ @@ +%.:.:.::-. .@* @@ ...........::... .. :+= % @-:.....:::-=+%
@-:::::... .-%%= @:..:: .:::@: @@@@@@@@@@@@@@@ @@ @.::::::.. ..:@ .@ . .. .....::.: . :=: @ @=-:.....-::-=%
%*.::.... ... ..........=@@ @..... ...:+@ @@@@@@@@@@@@@@ %@@.+@ .::--::..: @: @@@@@@. @ .. ........:-. . -+- @ @-::.....::--:@
@=-:............................=@+ @.... ....::=@# :@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@=..--::.. .- *+-@@@@@@@@@@@. @ . .....:.:::. -=.+@ .%:::......:+--%
*.::..... +=:: . ....:.::.:-%@ *@... ....:-.+@@@ @@@@@@@@@@@@@.:---:-:. . @@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@ @= . ....... .....-. .=-.@ %+--.......--.@
-:::.... .@@ %+. ...% =. .......:+@= %@..... .....:..:-=%%%@@@@%*-. . .=.-= .::::::-.... -@@@@@@@@@@@@@@ =@ @+ .............:..--.@@ @-:.......:-.:@
%.......*.+ %#*++@=+@+ .......:%@. :@. ... ........:::::---::.... @ . ..:.:-....... . @@@@@@@@@@@@@@ @@ @ ......::.:::..:..%# %*-. . ..:. @
=.:....* . *= ....%=-. ..... :@@ @:...:.. . . ..... ...... @+......... . .@@@@@@@@@@@@@+ @@ *@ ......... .=---: @@ @%-: ...: @
@.:.:.=*= .....- = ......:@@- @@......::.... ........ @+.. . . %@@@@@@@@@@@@ @@: @*.:..:......-::. .@@ %*-. . .::.@
*....:.. # @ .@..@. . .......-@@@@. :@- ...........:%%%........-@=.. . . . ...:. @@@@@@@@@@@ @@@-@@.....:..::::::..*@- @::. . ....@
.+:...+ @ ..... . ..........:+%%@@@@@@%%%#*+==--........@@.... . ..:. . .@@@@@@@@@@@@* .....:....---.-@@ -@:=.. . .:::@
*:... -= :......% + ........ ......:::-------:.........:@*... ..... . . . . : .::----=-:::=@@ @.:-.. . .:.#
@....%@ + :.....* ... . ..... ..... -@*...:. .. ..... .. . .:... ...:.:. ..:::...:-.@@ -%-==.. .:. @
@=. ..= = .....= * ..... . .........%@*.:::..... .... . ...... .. .... ...:::-=+=-.@# +. @+:-.. .:..@
@. .. *@:.....:@ %:.....................@@=.:-:.. .... ... . .. . . ..:::-::..@@... *@* -@%:-... .. .-:.@
%..*+ %% -:..-...:%= ...... .. +@@:::---:... ....... ....... . .. ..... ........::: @-..--=+=+%@@@@@@@@@%#=::-:... . ..:.-@
@ @ -# =.....% *%#-... *@@=:-===-. .... .... ....... .. ... .. . .--=--@:....::::--:--::::::..:... :::.@*
@ @ =@ ...-.. *#+@- @@@=--==-.. . .... .. .... .. .. ... ... ..--=-@-..................... .:..#%
:% . =@@*--===-:. .. ... ..-.. ....... ... ... . .... =:=-*@....... ... ..:..:@=
@@@@@%=====-:... ... @ ... ...... .:. . . . ..... ...... . .--=:%@....... ... ................-*+
-@@@*=-=-----:.. .. .@+.... ........ .. . ........: ... .:--:@%....:.::..:--:.:......-+@%
@@@#:==-=:-:-... ... ..*@-:. ...... .... .. ......- -:. . ..--:%@....-+*#+###*@@@@@@.
%@@+:-=-::=:.. .. -@#::. ....... .... ....... ..... :.-:. . .. ..-=:.%@*
-@@-:-==:.::.. .. .@@.-: ..:..% ...-.:... .=...:::.. ..:.. .... .. ...=:::.@@@
#@%:-==-:..:. .. ... -@. .@@.=-:. ..:.@.. :-::.... ....%:. ..:. :.:.=...... . . ::...::-#@@@.
@@*:--=-:... ... . ..-@@%..... @@-:::.. ..:..@....-+--:.........#=. .:. .....**.....%-...... .-.....:--:=@@@@=
*@%-=---:. . .... .@@@:........@@=-:.. . .:..:@.....====-.. ......:%.. *:-.... ..::..%......%: ...:. .. ....:--:.=@@@:
=@%:==-.. ..... ... +@@@@@@@=.....=@+--:.. . .::..*@......++==-: .....:@....=---... ..--:. =@......@*..:.::..... .....:-::-@@*
@%.:==:.. ......... #@@* @....@#---. .:..-@#.......**--:. ......@+...%-:-::.. ..:--:-:%@+.# %@::::---... ...:::.. @@%
@@:==-:.. ........*@@: @..%@==-.. .--..@@.........+%:=-. .....+@.. .*#.-=-:. ..---:::-@@@ %%*-----:... ..:-:...@*
@@=-=:... .....-@@: @.@*==:. ..-:.@@............@-=-:. .....@*.. .:%.:-=-:......::=-:--#@+ @@+====--.... . .:--:. %@
-@+=-::. ......-@# @@%:==. ....%@@%#. =@@*....@:-==: ......@.-@@@-*%.:-=-:........:=-:..*@- :@#-==-:..:. . --=--:@=
@%==-.. .....*@@ @@+-=:: .:..%@@ @%.%%==--. .....@@# =@# .---...... .:-:::..=@: @%=++-........ .-:===:=@
%@:--. .....@% -@:=-.. ...#@. -@@-=--. ::...@= .#..::..... ...:::::.+@ #@-+==-...:.....::=+=:@
@*--:. .... +@= %%:==. . ...=@. @%--:: .....=@ #%........ .......:-.:% %%+==-. ......::=*+:@
+@::=: .... @@ **::.. .....:#: @=:=-. ..:...@% %%...:..... .. .-== ** @:==-... .... :*= =
@@.--. ... .@* %=::. ... @# @---.. ...:...@ **..:..... ..-==.-+ +#.+=.... .. .-==.#
@#.-: ....@# %+:-: ...=@ .@.--. ...:...-@ %.:.:.. .:=-:-+ :@:-:.... .:-==%
@=::. . ..@% %%.:- ..:.*@ +%:=-......:.:..#. @-:.. .==.@ @=:...... -+.#
@=:: .. ..@. :@.-: ...@% @:-=.. .......@ @--.... ..=-.+ @.:..... -=-%*
@:.:..... %* %::: ....#@ @.:-.. ... ....@ @.:... .--.= ==.. ... .=--@
@-:.. ...@. %%::. ...@+ #:........ ...*@ @-::. ..-:- @... . =-.@
@*... .-@ @.:-. ...#@ @..... . .:.@ @-.: :-:= @.... . =-%*
#@.-: . . *% @*--:. ....=@ @.... .:..% **::.. .--:* %.. ... =:@.
@.:-.....## @:-::.. ....@ *... --:.@ +*.:-. :==:@ @-:. =--@
%-::.....%@ =%::=. ....%% %..... --::+ %::.... .-=:#= %:.. +-@-
#%.=:....-@ @+:=-......:@ %:.. .-:.*+ #*::..... ----@ .@:... =-*=
@.-. ... @ @:-=.......%- @+.... -=-.@ =#+:--::..::. --..% @:... .=-##
@+::.... @ .@:=-.......@ @-...... .+-:=+ +%@%+=-===-..... .... .-=--= @::... ..=.@
@::.....*@ **-=:......#% *@... .==-:%-%-:.:..:-+==-...... ... .:=:.# .@+-. .:.%*
*@::.....% @:=: ..:...@= *@..... .=-::%:.-.:..:=-..............:... :.=* #@... .::%@
@+-:.:..@* @#-:.......:@ :@%::.. -=:.#*. ..:. .:...............** %@.:. .-:#@
@:::...:@ %::........@* +@%:::.. ::::.%#.. ...:...:...:.:.-:.-# * %.@::. -.:@
@:=:...%@ @+-. ..:..-@ .@@+-::.. :-.:..%=.. .........:----=-: +# *-# .@.: .:.@=
=@--:...@ @#:: ....:@ +@@%=-:..... ..:.. -@.. ...::-:::-..:#@@+ *....@....:-=@
+@--:..-@ @*:. ....%@+ *@%=-=--:... :::...@-.. ....:-:-+*#%@@@*. @.. @@....:-@
+@-:...#+ %=.:. ....@-% #@%..-=-.... ....:.@@::. :-::.%@# * #. *@.. .:@
-@-:...@ %@::. ...:%+% @%-::==:.. .. ..=@@@..:..:--::-@- : #% :@....@
@::.. @ %@=::......-= *@ @%--:--:.. ...... .....:@@. @.:-..::-:++= + +-.:@+:..%*
@::.. @ %@=::......- -@@+ @*+--::. ... ... ......=*- @.=-:----%.+ @......%..@
@-:...@ %@--:......@@%* + @*+=.... .. ... #@: #+=-=:..==.. ...*.%@:.@
@+-:..@ @@.:-:... @:...-+- +@++-... ...:#*+: @+=---.-=* -= @@+ ...= .%.@
#%:...@ :@%..-.. : : ..#+ %*+=:... .* #.# @-==-- %* + @-..+ + @* %.:%
%....@ %@:..-. ++= *-: -@ @==-......# -. = %+=+-# @= : @....= @-@.@:.@=
%=...@ @@...-+.......@ =. @==:.... +.. = @:-:% @.....%= .*%=- ...- . *.....=@:
#%...@: %@..-= .*....-@# @+=-...:*..: @::=:=+.....+ : ...% @ * +..* -@@%
@...#@ @+.*=@*@+ @@= ##-:..: %@@ @:.% .-.....***+..... @ *..- %.@@
%@..-@ #.##...@ *: @:.... @ @ @ @:.-% .=# * #@##+=...@:
@:..@ @# %##.-@% +=.. @-:% #@@: =.. =@@* -+.... @@@
+@..%% @% * #@+ @.. %.=- -+: . @.... ##@
@=.-@ #@-: .% @. + ##: +...@
@- @ @@:=@. @ *= =*= .......:@:
@.-@ @..% @..@ +#+.... +
:@ #@ @.+ @@@
#@.@ @.*
@*@. *%@
Connect an account. Look at what it shows. Decide after.
An e-mail address to create the account, your broker credentials for the first connection. Nothing else: no card, no sales call.
Windows · Linux · browser — no credit card.